Now that some time has passed, I have redrawn my TLT trendlines. This time, I am using the channel tool, which by definition demands the prices be confined within perfectly parallel lines.

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Now that some time has passed, I have redrawn my TLT trendlines. This time, I am using the channel tool, which by definition demands the prices be confined within perfectly parallel lines.
Just in case any of you with mortgages and other interest-bearing debt are worried about rates, I’d say this is not a situation that is going to change anytime in our natural lives.
The artificial beating-down of interest rates is a sight to behold. I mean, since my mortgage rate is 2.625%, it has its upside, but seriously, this has become simply ridiculous, since debt-holders are literally paying negative interest rates, when inflation is taken into account.
The bond market is going to be an important driver in equity prices for the rest of the year, and I would gently assert that they are looking bullishly-poised (which, if true, would mean declining interest rates). Here we see TLT finally pushing above its downtrend, having successfully conquered it.
Yikes. I see that my crypto-is-toast musings have been prescient. How ironic that the most calamitous asset failure of our lifetimes is something I never dare short. Anyway……….one last Krazy Konclusion, since these dogs aren’t doing to walk themselves:
I spent part of my Father’s Day doing my favorite thing in the world: dorking around with historical price data and playing around with charts. I have put together three quick posts, inspired by the new futures database we have here on Slope. It’s just a simple chart with a simple conclusion in the caption: